International Conference on Rain Water Cistern Systems
USA - June 1982
2: Rainfall Analysis
Stochastic Model of
Daily Precipitation using the Time Series Methodology
University of Yucatan, Mexico
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico
The Yucatan Peninsula, situated in the eastern part of the Mexican Republic
(Fig. 1), has geological conditions that necessitate the proper management of
its water resources. The aquifer of this peninsula is of the calcareous type (Lesser
1976). Here, the limestone in the study area is covered in some places by just
a few centimeters of soil (Gaona, Gordillo, and Villasuso 1980). The area is relatively
flat, and there are no rivers and lakes. For this reason, groundwater and precipitation
are the only sources of water that can be considered.
In this region, the groundwater has a high content of carbonates and is frequently
contaminated by injections of municipal and industrial wastes that infiltrate
to the groundwater table. It is for this reason that we consider precipitation
as the most viable way to obtain potable water for human consumption. Although
rainfall catchment was a very common source of water in the past, the actual design
of an adequate system for catchment storage and the management of pluvial water
requires more scientific studies.
The first of these studies consists in the development of a statistical model
of rainfall by using historical data to plan the tank volume and their catchment
Presented here is the statistical analysis of the data and the way in which
it will be used to design the cistern, including the results.
The data consist of the daily rainfall-depth measurements corresponding to
the past twenty-five years from one of the forty meteorological stations that
exist in the Yucatan Peninsula-that which is situated in the city of Merida. A
microprocessor Radio-Shack TRS-80 model was used for the analysis, which was done
on a daily basis, to obtain results that can be used in other areas even though
it was not necessary for our purpose.
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